Nine Trump Promises that are unlikely to come to pass

Politicians are known for making promises and pledges they are unlikely to be able to fulfill and former President Donald Trump has arguably made more ambitious ones than have most.

As Trump prepares to enter the Oval Office for a second non-consecutive term, he has already made a wide variety of promises ranging from the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, to ending inflation, and eliminating the U.S. Department of Education.

Some of these proposals present logistical challenges, while others would require the approval of Congress. And even with Republicans in control of both chambers, some of the proposals are still unlikely to gain enough support to pass.

Here are nine of Trump’s proposals that are unlikely to come to fruition:

Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants

 There are close to 12 million undocumented immigrants living in the U.S., according to The Center for Migration Studies of New York.

The federal government has about 20,000 ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents.

Many of those agents work behind a desk and are not directly involved with interdiction actions.

This alone presents a logistical problem should Trump direct immigration enforcement agencies to conduct mass removal operations-which would almost undoubtedly be challenged in court by immigration advocacy groups since many of the undocumented come from families with mixed legal status.

The practice of sanctuary policies in many American cities and pledges by local officials that their police departments will not cooperate with ICE is unlikely to change even with threats by incoming administration officials to cut federal funds from those jurisdictions.

While the Trump administration is expected to pursue more aggressive measures than did the outgoing Biden administration, any large scale deportation efforts are likely to primarily focus on those with criminal affiliations-pundits and analysts say.

Deporting law-abiding undocumented immigrants could engender widespread public outrage and also hurt the economy.

During Trump’s first term in office his administration was forced to abandon a policy of separating undocumented families at the U.S.-Mexico border largely due to the optics of the situation.

Some campaign officials have suggested Trump may try to get around that controversy this time by simply deporting undocumented families together. But, as previously stated, that could present legal issues.

Abolishing the U.S. Department of Education

The Department was established by Congress in 1979 under the direction of then-President Jimmy Carter.

It has about 4,500 employees and operates on an annual budget of around $240 billion.

Every Republican president since Ronald Reagan has at least given lip service to idea of abolishing the Department. But serious attempts to even try to defund the agency have never gained traction in Congress.

Republicans have long argued that states and localities are best suited to address education needs and that having a department at the federal level simply amounts to having another layer of unnecessary bureaucracy.

But eliminating an entire executive department would be controversial with any federal agency, much less one that is strongly supported by an army of influential teachers’ unions and civil rights attorneys.

In short, the Department is unlikely to go away anytime soon.

Eliminating taxes on Social Security

Even without any cuts to existing funding, the Social Security Trust Fund is expected to become insolvent by 2035.

Eliminating taxes on benefits would bring about that day even sooner.

For that reason, such a proposal is unlikely to gain enough support in Congress to pass.

Taxation of benefits began in the early 1980s and has since become the primary funding source for the program-which tens of millions of senior citizens rely on.

Ending the war in Ukraine war in one day

Trump has promised to bring a swift end to Ukraine’s nearly-3 year war with neighboring Russia.

But doing so is expected to take some time, even if the U.S. decides to significantly cut aid to Kyiv.

And putting forth a plan that is acceptable to both parties will almost certainly be a challenge.

Ukraine may reject any proposal that requires land concessions to a country that brutally invaded them.

Russia may refuse to budge simply because of the toll the conflict has taken on its troops and the nation’s pride.

A lasting settlement may require U.N. peacekeepers to actually enforce a cease-fire agreement.

But Russia is unlikely to ever let that happen.

Repealing and/or replacing the Affordable the Care Act (ACA) 

In an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press on Dec. 8, Trump said he is open to the idea of getting rid of the ACA and replacing it with something that might work better. Trump did not provide specifics as to what that might mean but said a plan is being discussed.

Trump tried several times to repeal the ACA during his first term in office.

The House of Representatives went along with the plan but the Senate narrowly rejected it in a dramatic showdown that concluded with the late-Sen. John McCain’s thumbs-down vote at 2 a.m. on July 28, 2017.

Since that time, the ACA has survived a plethora of legal challenges and has become directly interwoven into the country’s health care system.

Repealing the ACA 15 years after its inception would likely generate significant bipartisan opposition, as it would wreak havoc on insurance markets.

Millions of people with pre-existing conditions might lose coverage.

The same could be true of the millions who rely on federal subsidies to purchase health insurance.

For those reasons, even many Republicans might be reluctant to revisit attempts to repeal the ACA.

Bringing an end to inflation

During the first two years of the Biden administration (2021-2022), inflation had reached its highest level since the late-197os.

Since that time inflation has dropped considerably, but many Americans are still struggling to pay for necessities like gas and groceries.

The recent presidential election that resurrected Trump’s political career is said by many pundits to have been a referendum on inflation.

The Biden administration has borne the brunt of the blame for rising costs that many economists say arose out of the federal government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response to the pandemic, the government spent billions on stimulus programs so as to ensure that the economy did not collapse.

Biden tried to mitigate the damage with the Inflation Reduction Act, but many Republicans claim the law simply made inflation worse.

It is unclear how much Trump could do as president to significantly reduce inflation.

He could ask Congress to make spending cuts, but even then the matter is largely out of the control of elected officials.

The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates, which is designed to help bring down inflation.

But the economy operates on a natural cycle and has a mind of its own.

Large-scale imposition of tariffs

Trump has promised to punish U.S. companies that send jobs overseas and foreign competitors who engage in unfair trade practices with retaliatory tariffs.

This was seen during his first term in office with limited tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Now, Trump is upping the ante, promising to impose 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports, including those from Canada and Mexico.

Tariffs are essentially taxes on imported goods.

When one country imposes a tariff on the other, that country is likely to respond by slapping a tariff on the first country.

This causes an increase in the price of goods tantamount to inflation.

The president can impose tariffs unilaterally through executive action.

It is unclear if Trump is merely using the threat of high tariffs to discourage trade competitors or if he actually intends to follow through with the threats.

Pundits have said Trump is likely to use tariffs on a limited basis and that they might not be as high as he has initially promised.

But the mere threat of tariffs is generating a lot of tension among U.S. companies and the nation’s primary trade partners.

Tariffs have the capacity to bring about economic chaos.

As a businessman, this is an issue that Trump is said to be well-versed on.

Eliminating Daylight Saving Time

Though many Americans balk at the prospect of having to change the time on their clocks twice a year, getting rid of Daylight Saving Time, which has been constant practice since World War II, might be more difficult than one might expect.

The Senate passed legislation in 2022 to do just that, but the proposal stalled in the House.

There is both bipartisan support for abolishing Daylight Saving Time as well as bipartisan support for keeping it.

While Arizona and some U.S. territories do not observe Daylight Saving Time, the rest of the country does and has for a long time.

That makes getting rid of the practice more difficult.

And doing so could lead to unintended consequences, such as unequal sunlight in certain parts of the country.

Increasing the size of the U.S.

The President-elect has recently made comments suggesting that the U.S. should take over Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal.

It is not clear if these proposals are serious are simply just conversation pieces.

Canada is a sovereign country with no desire to join the U.S.

Greenland is a Danish territory.

The Panama Canal is owned and controlled by Panama.

Short of a series of unprovoked wars, it is almost impossible to ascertain how any of these proposals could become reality.