Hope for Democratic Optimism in the 2024 Presidential Election from a Conservative
Listen to this articleAll of the signs are increasingly pointing to a likely Democratic loss in the 2024 presidential election, as well as possible down-ballot resultant problems. True, national polls today, June 20, have President Biden up by two (within the margin of error), but the electoral vote remains in Trump’s favor.
Let us count the reasons for Republican optimism:
Republican nominee-to-be Donald Trump is gaining in swing states and among African-American likely voters with momentum appearing to be behind him. Every measure and issue appears to have negative valence for Joe Biden.
1. Even CNN has principals, such as Jake Tapper, who wonder whether the Democrats have calculated how much a Biden presidency could weigh against their chances of winning the presidency in 2024.
2. President Biden is giving reason after reason to believe he is neurologically declining before our very eyes, from alleged “freezing” at fundraisers to being led off from wandering aimlessly after incongruously saluting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the recent G7 Summit; Supporters jumped in to claim he was reasonably giving thumbs up to skydivers. The greatest current fear is that Joe might have to yield his 2nd four years of presidency to Vice President Kamala Harris, who is distinguished by having less support than the president.
3. There is no major issue that appears to be Biden’s: the economy and inflation, illegal immigration and the border, Ukraine, Israel, China, Russian, Iranian and now North Korean aggression. Climate change? What have three years of the Biden presidency wrought?
4. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is slowly accruing support, which could take away some more Democratic backing from Biden.
5. America by polling appears to want strong leadership, which President Biden does not seem to personify. Fox reports that many Americans who have been averse — even hostile — to a Trump Presidency are now reluctantly moving to support him, including this writer’s choice: Nikki Haley.
So, about what should Democrats be optimistic?
A Democratic ticket transformation at the Democratic National Convention could win this election going away. It could also provide a non-peculiar, neurologically sound centrist candidate. Those adjectives should disqualify the charismatic but policy-failing California Governor Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the three nightmares of the Apocalypse for liberals through conservatives.
Then who?
A number of Democrats could qualify, Democrats who satisfy all of the above criteria and some are from swing states that would help win the presidency: Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and even Delaware Sen. Chris Coons (once a George Will favorite).
I am a conservative never-Trumper who may move to support Trump, unless…unless…the Democrats make the necessary leadership changes.
And keep in mind that with all of these substantive advantages, Trump’s lead in swing states is still not significant.
If Democrats wake up and show some strength in these perilous times, everything changes, including Democratic chances to win the presidency – by a considerable margin
Richard E. Vatz is professor emeritus of political rhetoric at Towson University and author of The Only Authentic of Persuasion: the Agenda-Spin Model (Authors Press, 2022) and many other works, essays and op-eds. He is a Distinguished Professor at Towson University and has won a number of teaching awards.
