Super Bowl betting is really a gamble this year

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Super Bowl XLVIII is shaping up to be one of the most exciting games in Super Bowl history. Thats what happens when the best offensive team meets up with the best defensive team. As soon as the teams were announced, the Denver Broncos were an early favorite with betters. Their impressive offense averaged 37.9 points per game — a new NFL record and, let’s face it, it’s largely because of Peyton Manning, who has had the best season in his career.

But gamblers love the underdog when it comes to the Super Bowl. Underdog teams won four out of the last six Super Bowls and plenty of wiseguys are betting that it will happen again. The average defense for the Seattle Seahawks only allowed 14.4 per game, but residents of Washington believe the Seahawks’ offensive abilities are being seriously underestimated. If you really want to talk offense versus defense, the Super Bowl has not been kind to offensive teams when defensive teams have won 3 out of 4 times.

Heavy betters in Las Vegas are holding off until closer to game time, probably waiting to see what the weather is going to do. For the first time, the Super Bowl is being played in an open-air stadium in the usually frigid Northeast. Weather will keep handicappers and bookmakers chewing their nails as they watch the weather channels. For now, the forecast is for a balmy 32 degrees to a low of 22 with snow showers, but you never know — Mother Nature doesn’t watch the tube.

As of Wednesday, January 22, Denver has an edge over Seattle. But, that could change as everyone knows. BWS will keep you fellow wiseguys informed and up-to-date.

The total point spread opened low at 47-48 in Vegas casinos and has stayed low. This is considered low for a Super Bowl spread but the lowest the Broncos have had all season. It sounds like a head-butting contest can definitely be expected.

Photo provided by Cici
Photo provided by Cici

The Seattle Seahawks may use extra cover against Manning, but they already have an awesome defense so it might not be necessary. When Joe Montana and the San Francisco 49ers destroyed Denver in Super Bowl XXIV, they had a 23-3 lead by halftime. Unlike Peyton Manning, Joe Cool was playing indoors.

It might be in the same way the Niners limited Dan Marino (and the Miami Dolphins) in Super Bowl XIX. The Seahawks could decide to target Manning, probably somewhere around the 6-yards per pass attempt. The key may be to build a strong first half lead, although I have seen this fail many times in the past. At any rate, Russell Wilson might put his aggressive front on, especially with his passes.

The Broncos and the Seahawks topped the futures boards this season in Vegas and this is the first time both top seeds have been in the title game since 2009. In Vegas, the Seahawks opened as short-lived favorites. At first, Seattle opened at -1.5. Station Casinos is the only one that opened Denver as the favorite and was at -3 within twenty minutes of betting.

However, in less than an hour, the numbers for the Denver Broncos started rising in the rest of the Vegas sports books. Denver was moved into the favorite spot as soon as it hit the board and it was up to -2.5 by Monday.

Support is holding steady so far for the Broncos since it was moved to a pickum (a wager where the point spread is zero). A lot of people think the Seahawks are better prepared to play at MetLife Stadium if the weather turns really bad. And if it does, Denver may be seriously slowed down by the Seahawks All-Pro safeties, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor.

Although the Broncos still remain slightly favored in the spread at -3 as of January 22, it still remains to be seen what will happen before the big game. The projected point total of 47 has remained the same and will probably be fairly accurate. So now we wait to see what the weather will do closer to game time to change the odds.